Monday, May 9, 2011

Greg Zuckerman says "a lot of people are betting against China..."

Greg Zuckerman, a senior writer at the WSJ, is interviewed by Yahoo Breakout. He also wrote the book of "The Greatest Trade Ever", a story about how John Paulson made his big fortune by betting against the US housing market in 2006 and 2007.

Smart Money Betting Against China: Zuckerman

Sunday, May 8, 2011

More bear cases about China from prominent names such as Goldman's Jim O'Neill

As Roubini expressed his bearish view of China recently, a renowned long time China bull, Goldman's Jim O' Neill who invented the BRICs, is also concerned about China's shift of its growth strategy, from investment- and export- driven growth to consumer driven growth.

George Magnus, an economist from UBS, also worries about the over-extended credits by Chinese banks may collapse.

Articles on 5/3/2011

Why One Of The World's Biggest China Bulls Is Getting Worried  by Joe Weisenthal

China risks credit-fuelled Minsky moment  by George Magnus

Monday, May 2, 2011

A collection of Jim Chanos' bearish view of China

Jim Chanos, a short selling hedge fund manager, made his fortunate and fame by spotting Enron's problem early. Now he returns under the spotlight by betting against China, especially the real estate market. Using his own word, "China's property bubble is Dubai x 1000". We will see how much he will be right or wrong this time.

Some of his arguments
1. China's fix asset investment is at 70% of GDP and it is not sustainable. The transition between a infrastructure investment driven to a consumer based growth will be painful and the consumer can't pick up fast enough.
2. He is not all bearish about China and some of his China related long positions include casino operators such as LVS and WYNN. His argues that corruptions in China are hard to control and some of the money are ended on black jack tables in Macau.

From Business Insider
- The Fundamental Difference Between The Soviet Union And China  Apr 2011
- Jim Chanos Just Announced The One China Long Bet He's Making  Feb 2011
- Jim Chanos Explains Why There Won't Be Gentle Landing In China  Feb 2011
- A Year After Calling Chanos An "Ignorant Slut", Stephen Roach Is Getting Nervous About Chinese Inflation  Jan 2011
- Jim Chanos: Adam Smith Will Get His Revenge In China  Dec 2010
- Jim Chanos Ratchets Up The China Rhetoric, Says It's On A Treadmill To Hell  Apr 2010
- UBS' Jonathan Anderson Slams Chanos: China Is Nothing Like Dubai   Feb 2010

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Business Insider's onsite investigation

Dec, 14 2010.  Amazing Satellite Images Of The Ghost Cities Of China
March, 2011 follow on video post, A Stunning Look At China's Ghost Cities

A recent bearish bet of China from Dr. Doom, Nouriel Roubini

April, 2011.  Financial Times: Boom vs Doom: is Nouriel Roubini right on China?

China’s Bad Growth Bet, Nouriel Roubini on Project Syndicate
Why Roubini is wrong on China, Shaun Rein on CNBC.com

Forbes Blog

Since China is running a market-oriented economy based on a totalitarian political system, it will be difficult to analyze China's real estate market using classic economic theories without understanding the role of the Chinese government .

April 2011,
why-chinas-property-bubble-is-different  by Kenneth Rapoza
China’s Property Bubble?  by Jack Perkowski

Jack referred a very interesting report from Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), “Building Rome in a day: the sustainability of China’s housing boom”. And I kind of agree with what Jack pointed out that "outside observers like Chanos underestimate the efforts of the Chinese government to avoid a bubble..."

Other old blogs from forbes 2010

Here’s Why Andy Xie’s Latest Claim About Chinese Real Estate Is A Bombshell
Real Estate Curbs Dampen Chinese Billionaires’ Wealth
China Real Estate Needs ‘Cap’ To Avert Full-Blown Bubble: Executive
Reality Check For China’s Real Estate
Chinese Real Estate Bubble Is Bursting
Ghost Towns In China Due to Property Bubble