Richard Duncan's new article, "China: Every Boom Busts"

Richard Duncan, the former global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, wrote an article about China recently.He argues that the growth of China's economy is largely depends on the debt-fuelled consumption from the U.S. consumers. Once people in the U.S. slow down consuming goods imported from China, the boom will bust.

But have U.S. consumers ever learned the lessons of stopping buy stuffs that they do not really need? There is an old Chinese saying, "It is easy to step from thrifty to sumptuous, but it is hard to do so in an opposite way"

China: Every Boom Busts  by Richard Duncan on May 3, 2011

"The Future of Chinese Growth" by David Beim

David Beim, a former banker and now a professor at Columbia Business School, published an article in March 2011 analyzing the growth models of China in the past 30 years as well as the bumpy road the country is facing ahead for its further development.

The author summarizes the past 30 year's development of China into three growth phases, the 80s, the 90s and the first decade of this new century. Based on the composition of GDP, he analyzes China's past/future growth under different models, which includes investment-driven, export-driven, and domestic consumption-driven growth.

He concludes that the golden age of Chinese super-growth is likely near to an end. In the meantime, the country holds bright future but has come to a crossroad where a new growth model is needed badly to replace the old one.  The only question remains is that whether China can stimulate domestic consumption fast enough to fill the gap left by investment- and export-driven growth.

The link of David Beim's full article
The Future of Chinese Growth  March 2011

Bloomberg: Poll: China’s Yuan Convertible by 2016

Take a look of what Bloomberg' survey about the future of China's Yuan.  I personally do not believe it will happen so soon.


Poll: China’s Yuan Convertible by 2016

Greg Zuckerman says "a lot of people are betting against China..."

Greg Zuckerman, a senior writer at the WSJ, is interviewed by Yahoo Breakout. He also wrote the book of "The Greatest Trade Ever", a story about how John Paulson made his big fortune by betting against the US housing market in 2006 and 2007.

Smart Money Betting Against China: Zuckerman

More bear cases about China from prominent names such as Goldman's Jim O'Neill

As Roubini expressed his bearish view of China recently, a renowned long time China bull, Goldman's Jim O' Neill who invented the BRICs, is also concerned about China's shift of its growth strategy, from investment- and export- driven growth to consumer driven growth.

George Magnus, an economist from UBS, also worries about the over-extended credits by Chinese banks may collapse.

Articles on 5/3/2011

Why One Of The World's Biggest China Bulls Is Getting Worried  by Joe Weisenthal

China risks credit-fuelled Minsky moment  by George Magnus

A collection of Jim Chanos' bearish view of China

Jim Chanos, a short selling hedge fund manager, made his fortunate and fame by spotting Enron's problem early. Now he returns under the spotlight by betting against China, especially the real estate market. Using his own word, "China's property bubble is Dubai x 1000". We will see how much he will be right or wrong this time.

Some of his arguments
1. China's fix asset investment is at 70% of GDP and it is not sustainable. The transition between a infrastructure investment driven to a consumer based growth will be painful and the consumer can't pick up fast enough.
2. He is not all bearish about China and some of his China related long positions include casino operators such as LVS and WYNN. His argues that corruptions in China are hard to control and some of the money are ended on black jack tables in Macau.

From Business Insider
- The Fundamental Difference Between The Soviet Union And China  Apr 2011
- Jim Chanos Just Announced The One China Long Bet He's Making  Feb 2011
- Jim Chanos Explains Why There Won't Be Gentle Landing In China  Feb 2011
- A Year After Calling Chanos An "Ignorant Slut", Stephen Roach Is Getting Nervous About Chinese Inflation  Jan 2011
- Jim Chanos: Adam Smith Will Get His Revenge In China  Dec 2010

- Chanos: We're "Absolutely" Still Short China, And The Yuan May Be OVERVALUED  Sept 2010

- Chanos: China Has Been A Good Place To Be Short  May 2010

- Q&A With Jim Chanos Part II: China's High-Rise Property House Of Cards  Apr 2010

- Jim Chanos Ratchets Up The China Rhetoric, Says It's On A Treadmill To Hell  Apr 2010
- UBS' Jonathan Anderson Slams Chanos: China Is Nothing Like Dubai   Feb 2010