David Beim, a former banker and now a professor at Columbia Business School, published an article in March 2011 analyzing the growth models of China in the past 30 years as well as the bumpy road the country is facing ahead for its further development.
The author summarizes the past 30 year's development of China into three growth phases, the 80s, the 90s and the first decade of this new century. Based on the composition of GDP, he analyzes China's past/future growth under different models, which includes investment-driven, export-driven, and domestic consumption-driven growth.
He concludes that the golden age of Chinese super-growth is likely near to an end. In the meantime, the country holds bright future but has come to a crossroad where a new growth model is needed badly to replace the old one. The only question remains is that whether China can stimulate domestic consumption fast enough to fill the gap left by investment- and export-driven growth.
The link of David Beim's full article
The Future of Chinese Growth March 2011
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